payroll tax, that's $160 million. we have obama care taxes. we know those are going through. >> the payroll tax number going up again? >> payroll tax, i think they're not going to extend it. so that goes up -- >> sooner or later they have to go up. >> that's $160 billion -- >> don't we need that money? >> funding social security. so it's very likely that that tax cut will not be extended into the new year. so there's a chance you have a mild recession, even in real terms, in the first half of next year. the good news, i think, my big prediction, i've had for awhile for whatever it's worth, i think we're developing a new nifty 50 in this country of very, very strong companies that are almost bond proxies. and i know a lot of people think they're expensive, but there's no other alternative. there's no other place to go. >> is the market priced appropriately for your estimation -- >> no, i don't think. >> for the first half of 2013. >> if you look at bottom of analyst estimates for 2013 they're still using 113, 114 for operating earnings, an 11%